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The UK Grand National - A Stats Race
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The only time in the last ten years when the stats have not found the winner was when Hedgehunter won. He was not a stats horse because he carried 11-01, with the cutoff being 11-00. On the basis of a pound and fitting all the other trends, a fair few number of punters backed him anyway. What we're trying to say is don't be fobbed off by the people who say the race is a lottery. Its not. The stats for most Grand National races are so glaringly obvious that its easy to see why they're so effective. We won't run through all of them here but we'll just major on a few of them which cuts the field down to about ten very quickly.

1. The Grand National is 4 and a half miles long.
Find a horse who has won over 3m+

2. Grand National has 40 runners.
Find a horse that has won in a field of at least 12-15.

3. Grand National has very big fences.
Find an experienced jumper who has completed races over the Grand National Fences.

4. Grand National is the most testing marathon race in the calendar.
Find a horse in the handicapbut not lugging more than 11-00 and therefore weighted down.

How many horses yesterday do you think matched these stats?
Answer: three had won over the fences and fitted the other stats.
And they all completed the race yesterday. The winner Silver Birch was joined by Liberthine (5th) and Clan Royal (11th). From my stats perspective, the latter two failed to qualify as they are French bred, and no such horse has ever won the race. Many have tried. Make a note of Gordon Elliot's Silver Birch, who finished a game second in this race. His next scheduled engagement is in the Grand National, and he fits all of my stats (which have found the winner for the last ten years!), so is one on an increasingly shortlist for the Aintree feature. Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer and finished 2nd in a cross country race and 4th in a hurdle recently. Will go to Cheltenham (Cross Country race) then Aintree."

Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course. But what we're telling you is that you don't need hindsight to back next year's winner. If you simply use some of the Grand National stats above, which are underpinned by clear logic, you have a very good chance of picking a winner.

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